Author Archives: Chris Henry

Euro Shows Weakness Under 1.32 To The Dollar

20
March

After rebounding to $ 1.30 in the middle of last week, the euro down under the symbolic $ 1.32. Around 13 hours, the currency of the European monetary union and yielded 0.43% at 1.3177 dollars, after a peak at 1.3245 in the morning.

Meanwhile, the euro took 0.20% to 110.5 yen, the new package accommodating the Bank of Japan continues to weigh on the Japanese currency. Nothing to report, however the side of a pound, the pound stable at 0.8330 euro or Swiss franc 1.2061 franc also neutral to the euro.

Threats from southern Europe have not actually disappeared: the Bank of Greece said that the recession in 2012 would be worse than expected, with a GDP decline of 4.5%, and the rating agency- Moody’s credit opinion that the new goals for Spain in 2012 budget deficit will be difficult to achieve without further austerity measures.

At ScotiaFX, we identify important technical thresholds for the euro / dollar, such as moving averages to 50 and 100 days respectively located at 1.3118 and 1.3206. ‘The news is now rare’, comment traders of the Canadian bank Scotiabank, ‘although some commenters questioned whether or not, Portugal will go the way of Greece’.

Although the rate of the Portuguese government bonds remains at 10, 13.6%, well below the 18% peak reached in late January. However, this rate is rising since the 12% of which bounced, 11 and 12 February.

‘In recent months, Europe has seen major progress. But we expect that the markets continue to evolve with the risk of crises that will occur in the euro area throughout the year, “they say.

A North European sales trader expects him, that the positive sentiment that bears the euro continues throughout the week, “in the absence of major economic indicators”. “But it should be noted that often times such as this are an opportunity for substantial corrections,” he warns.

In terms of statistics, it is noted that the annualized inflation slowed to 3.4% in the UK in February, against 3.6% in January. Down for the fifth consecutive month, the inflation rate and found its lowest level since November 2010.

Posted on by Chris Henry

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Greece Situation Still Holding Over The Euro

7
March

Access instilled doubts yesterday about the risk of failure of the “PSI” Greek gave way to a lull. On the foreign exchange market, the euro exchange rate resumed as a result of 0.20% against the greenback and dollar appears to 1.3133 euro. The single European currency recovers in similar proportions against the yen at 106.04 yen, the euro.

Nothing to report, however the side of the Swiss franc or the pound, where stability is required to book and 1.2055 respectively 0.8351 francs per euro.

Analysts Changes of ScotiaFX ‘growing concerns about the outlook for global growth and the widespread feeling that the latest increases were excessive, has encouraged a market downturn’, the currency is no exception.

However, the famous trading scheme Greek sovereign bonds (PSI), which should achieve the abandonment of more than 100 billion euros of debt, raises fewer concerns this morning as yesterday.

IG Markets said that a positive response from at least 90% of private investors would be ideal for the successful exchange of securities. Between 75 and 90%, the Greek government will enable collective action clauses to force bondholders to accept the offer, corresponding to a credit event that kick in the CDS. But beware: below 75%, the situation would become very problematic. In this case, the 130 billion of Europe would not be released next week and the IMF do more would follow.

A wait is also required before other important deadlines. A North European trader said that he is still 45 days before the legislative elections occur in Greece, event ‘that could revive fears of the market’. Meanwhile he adds, announcements expected tomorrow from the ECB and the Bank of England could be monitored.

The statistical side of the agenda, is expected this afternoon from the U.S., at 14:15, the publication of the ADP survey on private employment for February, with a consensus of 200,000 new jobs. Fifteen minutes later, they will welcome the productivity for the fourth quarter, expected up 0.8%. Late afternoon will be announced weekly petroleum stocks.

Posted on by Chris Henry

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